Borussia Dortmund vs. Mainz: probable teams, match stats

It's Dortmund's to lose. After taking advantage of Bayern Munich's 3-1 defeat to RB Leipzig by beating Augsburg on the penultimate weekend, BVB have opened up a two-point lead over the defending champions and know victory against Mainz will seal the deal. Dropped points would also suffice, but only if Bayern fail to win away to mid-table Cologne. A full house of 81,365 is expected at the Signal Iduna Park, where Dortmund have won their last 11 Bundesliga games since drawing 2-2 with Bayern on Matchday 9. The only other time Edin Terzic's side did not take maximum points in front of their own fans this season was the 3-2 loss to Werder Bremen on Matchday 3 - a game the five-time Bundesliga winners led 2-0 until the 89th minute. Jude Bellingham should return to help get Dortmund over the line after knee troubles kept him out of the 3-0 victory in Augsburg. Sebastien Haller scored a brace for the second straight game, and can count on Karim Adeyemi, Julian Brandt and Donyell Malen to man the supply line once more. Ominously, BVB have scored at least three goals in five of their last six league matches.

Mainz did Dortmund a huge favour by taking down Bayern on Matchday 29. The result fuelled their hopes of a top-six finish - as well as BVB's title ambition - but an alarming run of defeats to Wolfsburg, Schalke, Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart has put European qualification beyond them. Six-goal winter signing Ludovic Ajorque is suspended, so head coach Bo Svensson will have to decide whether to stick with Aymen Barkok or recall Jae-sung Lee. Andreas Hanche-Olsen is available again following a one-match ban of his own, though, and is expected to go straight back into the back three, allowing Dominik Kohr to move back into midfield. Aaron Martin is an alternative to Anthony Caci on the left-hand side, meanwhile, in what will be the Spaniard's final involvement in the red of Mainz before a summer transfer to pastures new. Right-back Silvan Widmer and injury-hit forward Jonathan Burkardt remain on the sidelines for a Mainz side that could finish as high as eighth or as low as 11th. Their away record so far this season reads: W6, D3, L7.

Match stats

• Marco Reus, who can win his first Bundesliga title at the age of 34, has scored more goals against Mainz than any team he's faced (14).
• Dortmund are pre-matchday leaders for the third time this season. They also topped the table ahead of Matchdays 25 and 29. Bayern have led the way on 22 matchdays.
• As well as winning the title, BVB can also set single-season club records for most home wins (15) and home points (46) with a victory.
• Karim Onisiwo is Mainz's nine-goal top scorer this term, despite failing to fire in his last seven outings. It's a new personal best for the Austrian, who is, however, goalless in 11 previous meetings with Dortmund.
• Mainz have avoided defeat on three of their last five trips to Dortmund (W2, D1).
• The 05ers have already equalled their club record for Bundesliga goals in a single season (52 - 2010/11 and 2013/14). Another strike in Dortmund would set a new go[a]ld standard for the Rhineland-Palatinate club.