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5 reasons Bayer Leverkusen will beat AS Roma in the UEFA Europa League

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May 12, 2023

1) The Alonso factor

Roma coach Jose Mourinho may be known as a wily old fox in the dugout, but his former pupil Xabi Alonso is proving he is a natural tactician too. The Spaniard took over in October 2022 with Leverkusen second bottom of the Bundesliga table. Since then he has overseen 32 games in all competitions, winning 16, drawing seven and losing eight, giving him a 50 percent win ratio.

It should also be noted that three of those defeats were in Alonso’s first six games in charge, with the 41-year-old still adapting to his players and new surroundings. So impressive have Leverkusen been, in fact, that only Dortmund (46) and Bayern (47) have earned more Bundesliga points than Leverkusen’s 43 since Alonso has been at the helm.

Any doubters wondering whether someone of Mourinho’s reputation might be a step too far for Leverkusen’s rookie coach should think again: after all, Alonso has already held his own against the likes of Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid, AS Monaco and Bayern.

2) Wizard Wirtz

Anyone who has watched Wirtz since his introduction to the Leverkusen first-team fold will know Die Werkself are a better side when the 19-year-old is available. The Germany international's cruciate ligament rupture, suffered towards the end of last season, threatened to derail his development, but he has had a quantifiable impact on his side's Bundesliga results since completing his recovery: Leverkusen have averaged 1.85 points per game with Wirtz compared to 1.41 without this term.

The North-Rhine Westphalia outfit succumbed to a disappointing early UEFA Champions League exit, finishing third in a group that included Atletico, Club Brugge and Porto. Wirtz's injury kept him out of all six matches, but he returned in time to take the field in the Europa League and has played a considerable role in Leverkusen's progression. He has found the net three times in the thus far six knockout matches, providing a further two assists, and was particularly important as his team turned around a 3-2 loss at the hands of Monaco in the first leg of their play-off round clash to ultimately progress on penalties.

The trip to Rome will be a tough challenge for Alonso and Co., but with Wirtz fit and firing, they have every chance of taking a positive result back to the BayArena.

3) Diaby and a strong attack ready to shine

As impressive as Wirtz has been, he is far from the only player Roma need to keep quiet at the Stadio Olimpico. Leverkusen possess an array of attacking talent to call upon, having scored 14 times in six Europa League knockout matches this campaign, while only Bayern, Dortmund and RB Leipzig have scored more than their 54 Bundesliga strikes.

Moussa Diaby is undeniably the pick of the supporting cast, netting 14 in all competitions - including five in European competition - as well as five assists. Fellow Frenchman Amine Adli has shone, too, scoring against Monaco and Ferencvaros in the round of 16 triumph, while Adam Hlozek has slowly started to settle following his summer move from Sparta Prague and scored and assisted as Leverkusen hammered Royal Union Saint-Gilloise 4-1 in the second leg of their continental European quarter-final earlier in April.

There is also star offensive talent further back: only Diaby (nine) has more Bundesliga goals for Leverkusen this season than right-back Jeremie Frimpong (eight), and left-back Mitchel Bakker has found the back of the net on three occasions himself. There is danger wherever you look in this squad, and any one of a number of players could be key in the Italian capital.

 

4) Strong knockout away form

Roma are a difficult team to travel to, especially under Mourinho, but Leverkusen will not be fazed given their strong Europa League away form. So far, they have won on all three of their knockout trips this season, scoring nine and conceding just three.

They needed to win by two goals against Monaco at the Stade Louis-II to avoid extra-time and almost did, with only a late Breel Embolo effort prolonging the match for an additional 30 minutes. Ferencvaros were no match for Leverkusen in Budapest, while Union Saint-Gilloise, who got the better of Union Berlin in the last 16, were dispatched with a swashbuckling display.

With the second leg against Roma on home soil, Leverkusen have a real opportunity to put themselves in a commanding position and, considering their recent form, you wouldn't bet against them doing so.

 

5) Mourinho and Roma's German woes

Mourinho has enjoyed great success at almost each of his coaching stations, but in 21 matches against German opposition, the Special One has won seven, tasting defeat 11 times (three draws).

In fact, of the five clubs he has faced from these shores, he has a winning record against just one, Schalke, and has lost on multiple occasions versus Bayern, Dortmund, Bremen and Leipzig.

Roma have also struggled against Germany's best in recent years. While they did secure a 3-2 win over Leverkusen in 2015, they have won just one other encounter with German teams in 10 attempts, also losing to this week's opponents 3-1 in 2004.

Of course, that was almost two decades ago, but such a streak could well play on the Giallorossi's mind in the build-up to kick-off on Thursday.

 

Source: .bundesliga.com

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