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Real Madrid can't afford to let Kylian Mbappe move to Saudi Arabia regardless of any future promises

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July 27, 2023

Paris Saint-Germain will take the money for Kylian Mbappe wherever it comes from. The superstar forward has been on the market for less than a week, and the suitors have started queuing up. The first to move was Saudi Pro League side Al-Hilal, who offered PSG, and Mbappe, an unprecedented figure to coax the player to the Middle East.

Despite animosity between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the Parisians will have no qualms about accepting the bid, and who can blame them? A club, who is not a direct rival, is handing them €300 million (£259m/$333m) for a footballer. Players aren't worth that. This is a cash commitment that simply cannot be beaten. PSG have made it clear to Mbappe that they don't care where the money comes from. They are selling to the highest bidder, and someone has already fielded an offer that simply no one else will touch.

But it's not that simple. Mbappe, if reports are to be believed, has made it clear that he would rather sit on the bench — and wait for his contract to expire — than play for Al-Hilal. The Frenchman has coveted a Real Madrid move for years, twice rejecting the Spanish giants in favour of money. However, now the moral principles are really kicking in. Around $2.1 million (£1.6m) per day, it appears, is just far too much.

But the real losers here might just be Madrid. It had been expected that they would sign Mbappe on a free in 2024. But the departure of Karim Benzema — ironically, to the Pro League — has left them with a hole to fill, and since Mbappe made it clear that he would be on the market more immediately, it was assumed that Madrid would pay up, ideally at a discount price. Now, though, competition has emerged. Los Blancos are being outbid, outthought, and potentially left facing a year, or longer, with a glaring hole in their side, while watching their dream target spend time elsewhere.

The contract

On paper, this should make sense. Al-Hilal have reportedly offered Mbappe a one-year contract, theoretically opening the door for him to play less than 12 months overseas before finally suiting up at Santiago Bernabeu. It would be a highly-paid holiday before the real stuff begins. Yet it's hard to trust such a promise. With that money, in such a lavish lifestyle, in an improving league, one year could well become two, or perhaps three. Once Mbappe sets foot in Saudi Arabia — if he does — then the mandate of a one-year excursion seems less likely. Unwritten promises are seldom fulfilled in the footballing world. The exact contract details are yet to be made public. That is, of course, for Mbappe to negotiate — if he desires. But the broad outline suggests that Al-Hilal are offering the player more money, and more perks, than PSG ever could. The salary itself, a cool €700m (£605m/$776m) per year, also includes image rights, a sticking point of his negotiations with both PSG and Madrid last summer, when the forward made a last-minute U-turn and opted to stay in Paris for, theoretically, two more years.

So, Mbappe would increase his salary by 1000 percent, and also be free to hold on to all of his sponsorships — while also pursuing others. This says nothing of the life of luxury, god-like status, and constant adulation he would receive in the Pro League. If this potential move is a money-making decision, Mbappe can have as much of it as he likes. Further reports have suggested that Al-Hilal would be more than open for the Frenchman to pen a multi-year deal, too. This is a one-year pledge that could quite comfortably become far more

Madrid can't risk him going somewhere else

It's a transfer, then, that would require immense amounts of trust from Madrid. Rarely are player pathways so clear than that of Mbappe to the Bernabeu. With most stars, there is some guesswork, or jeopardy involved. Erling Haaland, for example, had multiple suitors before picking Manchester City. Lionel Messi's Inter Miami move was impossible to call until the last hour before it materialised. But it is common knowledge that Mbappe wants to be a Madrid player. He quite literally wrote a book about it. Madrid, meanwhile, have been quietly confident about the whole thing. Even when Benzema announced his sudden departure a few months ago, there was comfort to be found in the fact that Mbappe wanted out. His whole public plea to leave was effectively a message to Madrid.

Los Blancos have become complacent in this knowledge. They haven't pursued any of the other big names on the market this summer, on the understanding that Mbappe would soon arrive. Harry Kane, Victor Osimhen, Randal Kolo Muani and others have all flown by on the assumption that Mbappe would be wearing white by August. But now, if Mbappe does go somewhere else, the whole transfer policy needs re-evaluating. An unplanned, unsanctioned move will need to happen. And it's during those scrambles for imperfect fits that budgets and negotiating positions go out of the window. This could get very messy, very quickly.

Ancelotti needs a goalscorer

In the first half of their first pre-season contest against AC Milan on Sunday, Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti deployed a new lineup . Once a 4-3-3 loyalist, he switched to a two-striker system, starting Brahim Diaz and Joselu up front. The results were lacking. Joselu ran a lot, but didn't get into the right spaces for Madrid's technical midfielders to find him. Diaz, for his part, looked lost, a No.10 asked to play as a second striker. The whole thing didn't exactly inspire confidence, and Los Blancos trailed, 2-0, at half-time.

The second 45 minutes were more encouraging. Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo entered the fold, and Madrid scored three against Milan's second-string defence. But impactful as the subs were, neither of the Brazilians are natural strikers. Both, arguably, prefer an assist. It was, admittedly, just the one game. Still, if there were already doubts about the lack of goals in this side, they were only worsened. Here is a team that certainly needs a striker, Mbappe or otherwise.

The good news is, there are other options available. Kolo Muani, Dusan Vlahovic, Goncalo Ramos, and — for a lot of money — Osimhen are all available. Any of those would provide an immense upgrade to this side. In an Mbappe-less scenario, Madrid would probably be delighted with bringing one of them in. All of them would perhaps be a more natural fit to replace Benzema, too. Osimhen, in particular, figures to be an enticing fit alongside Vinicius and Rodygo. Still, despite his 31 goals and Serie A winner's medal, the Nigeria star is not Mbappe. None of the alternatives are

Forced into spending more than they want

This has already been an expensive transfer window in the Spanish capital. Club president Florentino Perez, a famously shrewd negotiator, spent big on Jude Bellingham, splashing an initial €103m (£88m/$110m) to bring the Englishman to Madrid. He followed that with a not-insignificant deal for Arda Guler, a transfer that reportedly cost $45m (£35m) after signing on fees and money paid out to the Turkish teenager's entourage. Madrid have no problem spending big — they have proved as much in the past. But they don't like getting ripped off. There is a complacency that comes with being the Real Madrid brand. They are not to be outspent or pushed around. It is, in their eyes, a privilege for a player to wear white, and the club's divine right to snatch the world's best. Negotiations take time, but Madrid always get the deal they want. It's something of a misguided sentiment, but it's the closest thing to actual 'club DNA' in real life.

It would be something of an insult, then, for Los Blancos to have to stretch their budget. However, in this case, they have no choice. The striker market is unpredictable, but the fact that Atalanta want a minimum of €70m (£60m/$78m) for Rasmus Hojland, who scored 13 league goals last year, is indicative of how expensive a potential addition might be. Of course, Madrid can pay up. But that doesn't mean they'll want to. Perez likes to throw cash around sometimes, but he also spends smartly, almost always at the right price. The specifics of this deal, whoever it would be for, appear beyond his control.

The 2024 problem

The worst nightmare, though, could conceivably happen here. Madrid could overpay for a striker who is nowhere near as good as Mbappe. They will pretend to be happy with the player, who will undoubtedly have to play next season, if not longer, burdened by the narrative that he was second, or even third-choice. But what if Mbappe makes a U-turn anyway? What if, the player who is known for changing approaches and exercising his power as a player, changes his approach and exercises his power as a player? Mbappe could commit to a multi-year deal in Saudi Araba, and decide after one season that the Pro League doesn't suit him. That 'I want out' interview is basically already written, a cry to Perez, Madrid, and Madridistas to embrace him once again.

Then Madrid have a real problem. Mbappe would perhaps be available on a free, but command an immense signing bonus and frightening wages. Even Los Blancos wouldn't be able to afford him. In such a scenario, they'd have to watch Mbappe go elsewhere once more, all while reassuring the world that they never wanted him anyway. And it appears to be careening that way. PSG will hold out for as long as they can and take the big offer. Mbappe could well be playing in the Saudi Pro League next year. In 12 months, Madrid could be watching him enter the market again. And that time, should it come, even the most powerful club in football won't have the finances to make it happen. Their predestined signing would have to go elsewhere once more.

 

Source: goal.com

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