Hamburg vs. VfB Stuttgart: relegation/promotion play-off second leg probable teams, match stats

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Hamburg have dreamed of getting back to the big time since their first-ever relegation from the Bundesliga in 2018, but they have a mountain to climb after suffering a 3-0 loss in Thursday's first leg in Stuttgart. Tim Walter's side were on the back foot from the very first minute – when Konstantinos Mavropanos headed VfB in front – and finished the game with 10 men after substitute Anssi Suhonen was sent off. The Finland midfielder therefore misses out with suspension, while Laszlo Benes is among the injury absentees after hobbling off in the dramatic final-day win over Sandhausen, which saw HSV pipped to automatic promotion by Heidenheim. The odds are stacked against the three-time Bundesliga champions, but coach Walter insisted that they aren't giving up – and "want to make the impossible possible."

Stuttgart have been a different proposition since Sebastian Hoeneß took over in early April, with three wins and four draws in their last eight Bundesliga games enough to overhaul Schalke and Hertha Berlin and avoid automatic relegation. Completing victory over Hamburg would certify their progress under the former Bayern Munich youth coach, who nevertheless insisted that "no game has ever been decided at half-time" and that his men have to remain "sharp and focused" as they travel to the Volksparkstadion. Josha Vagnoman and Serhou Guirassy joined Mavropanos on the scoresheet in the first leg – with the latter also missing a first-half penalty – and Hoeneß could well name an unchanged starting XI. Stuttgart are hoping to become the 12th Bundesliga team to win the play-off in 15 editions since it was reintroduced in 2008/09.

Match stats

• Hamburg's Robert Glatzel has hit 19 goals this term, all in Bundesliga 2 – but HSV's leading marksman has failed to fire in his last three outings.
• The Red Shorts have won their last three league meetings with VfB on home soil, even romping to a 6-2 victory in their most recent encounter in October 2019.
• Only three Bundesliga 2 teams have won promotion via the play-off since it was reinstated 14 years ago: Nuremberg in 2009, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2013 and Union Berlin in 2019.
• VfB top scorer Guirassy has 14 goals in all competitions, and has netted in five of his past six competitive appearances.
• Stuttgart's victory on Thursday was the biggest in the play-off first leg since 2009, when Nuremberg also won 3-0 in Cottbus (they eventually ran out 5-0 winners on aggregate).
• Stuttgart have only lost two of their 11 competitive fixtures since Hoeneß took charge, and are hoping to extend a three-season stay in the top flight.